Forecasting

We provide independent, forward-looking analysis grounded in evidence – not received wisdom. We cut through the high-volatility content of open-source media to produce reporting that is politically neutral, and objective. We are not afraid to take an out-of-consensus view if the evidence supports it.

Intelligence

We deliver the critical insights and objective, evidence-based analysis that help business leaders make sense of complexity and shape their risk decisions on specific issues, projects and investments.

  • Scenario forecasting & probability analysis
  • Human intelligence
  • Data analysis
  • Intelligence fusion
  • In-the-field primary source intelligence

Threat Monitoring

We identify and track the subtle indicators of emerging and evolving threats at country and regional levels to help our clients respond with confidence to changes in their operating environment.

  • Media monitoring
  • Early warning of novel threats
  • Trend identification and evaluation
  • Sentiment analysis
  • Deep & dark-web research

Our approach combines over 20 years of real-world experience and expert human judgement with time-tested quantitative analysis methods. In hard-to-reach or hostile places where good data isn’t readily available, we go and find it for ourselves.

AI is integral to our work – not as a shortcut or a replacement for human expertise, but as a tool to expose blind spots, provide alternative perspectives, and enhance the rigour of our analysis. Combined with our culture of internal debate, AI helps us stay ahead of the curve and make calls that our clients can trust.